It’s Forrester, but this is all on the mark.
This will mean an automatic retraction in how many books are printed because publishers won’t get the massive bulk purchases they used to get for as many titles. It also means they won’t be able to give as many large advances. Meanwhile, authors won’t like that advances are going down, marketing spend is plummeting, and royalties are shrinking (especially now that 30% of the eBook price goes to the bookseller in most cases). Suddenly, self-publishing seems a real alternative for anybody with even a modest Twitter following, especially when Amazon is offering 70% of the retail price of eBooks — paid monthly, not twice annually.
Boldfaced emphasis added by me.
There will come a full-blown panic in the halls of print publishing. Staff will be jettisoned when they discover just how far underwater they’ve been. And none of that last-minute emergency triage will work to their benefit.
But writers will have a clear path to the future.